I guessed that in longer distances, 5K and longer that the only real main performance factor was aerobic speed (i.e. lactic acid and similar would not be a factor) . Because there was only one main factor I guessed that there should be a linear-ish reduction in speed as the distance got longer
I looked at a few variations of (pace/500m) with distance . But the most reliable method I found for me was Watts with distance .
I.e. If I increase the distance by 25%, how much would Watts be reduced .
I left it for a while and then with the Free Spirits got more interested in it again (to see what I and other people would be approx able for)
I redid my own numbers, and did ones for Derrylad and Graham Benton, then PSims and Stan adding more excel automation with each set .
Then I decided to see if I could do a pretty much fully automatic version and that was the following spreadsheet
Long Distance Pace Estimator.xls (CLICK ME) (Thanks Thomas)
The current version of the spreadsheet is easy to use (I think and hope
)The spreadsheet requires your 5K PB time and at least 1 of the following (6K, 30min, 10K, 60min, HM, FM) . The more distances you add hopefully the more accurate the result (as long as one of your PB's is NOT very soft compared to your other PB's)
Add your PB times / distances in the yellow cells . There are 2 ways to add your times
1. In the time column, this is somewhat error prone
2. In the Hours, Minutes and Seconds columns, Note Seconds can have decimals also, i.e. 57.9 . having decimals in the Hours or Minutes will mess with the calculations
When you add all your long distance PB's the spreadsheet will automatically update . And will fill out the green squares which are your predicted PB's for all the longer distances .
Est Watts = Estimated Watts
Est Pace = This is how many seconds each predicted 500m will take . 100 is 1:40 pace, 150 is 2:30 pace and 200 is 3:20 pace
Estimate = How much time it estimates this distance will take .
Hopefully the estimates will be close to your own PB's (where you have added them) . The 30+60 min distances have both estimated time (this probably will be slightly over or under 30 min or 60 min) and the estimated distance for the times .
You can also add custom distances (e.g. 30,000m) in the orange field in the Distance column
Note this spreadsheet will not work accurately in distances shorter then 5K, because the spreadsheet does not take anaerobic (without oxygen) power into account . So the shorter the distance under 5K the slower the estimate will be compared to your actual PB .
(edit)
This might not be as bad as I originally thought, 2K and shorter distances didn't work well for me . But my current 5K PB is (very?)soft and I'm also a sprinter . So these distances might work for you .
Note this spreadsheet estimates PB's, your first 30K or Full Marathon should be slower to add a decent safety margin.
I hope a some people find this spreadsheet useful, fire any problems below . Or I didn't explain anything clearly .
